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Third-round action begins in Madrid, and there are some intriguing matches to watch. The defending champion, Carlos Alcaraz, and last year’s finalist, Jan-Lennard Struff, will also be in action after winning straight sets in their opening rounds. As always, we here at LWOT will offer our predictions for every match on the slate for day 5. But who will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 5 Predictions
Tommy Paul vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-Head: Paul 2-2 Cerundolo
These two played three times last year, and all those matches were three-setters, but this is their first meeting on clay. Tommy Paul has been out from an ankle injury since the Miami Open last month, but he looked good in his opening-round match against Lukas Klein, especially in the last two sets. The American is a great mover and feels comfortable on clay. Francisco Cerundolo has played a lot of tournaments on clay, but his results haven’t been up to his high standards on this surface. However, he looked excellent against a tough opponent in his opening-round match and would want to carry that momentum in this match. Just like their previous meetings, this one appears to go down the wire, but the faster conditions at the Madrid Open give Paul a slight edge for me.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Holger Rune vs Tallon Griekspoor
Head-to-Head: Rune 0-1 Griekspoor
Holger Rune will feel a lot more confident after he came through a major scare in his last-round match. Rune has made a good start to the clay season, but he wants to go even further in Madrid as the altitude helps his attacking brand of tennis. Tallon Griekspoor hasn’t won consecutive matches since reaching the semifinals in Rotterdam in February. Griekspoor served well in his opening round match as he hit 11 aces and will need that against Rune. Griekspoor can play at a very high level and likes to play attacking tennis, but Rune does it slightly better.
Prediction: Rune in 3
Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Baez
Head-to-Head: Fritz 4-0 Baez
Taylor Fritz has found it quite easy to come out on top in this match-up. Fritz had a brilliant run to the final in Munich. He continued that form and won his opening-round match in straight sets. The American’s serve is a big weapon in these conditions which can trouble any opponent. Sebastian Baez had a great golden swing on clay but hasn’t quite replicated that same level this month. The Argentine lost his opening-round matches in Monte Carlo and Barcelona despite winning the first set. He has never won a set against Fritz but would fancy his chances on his favourite surface. The faster conditions at the Madrid Open will allow Fritz; to easily hold his serve and create opportunities in return games.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
Head-to-Head: First meeting
Carlos Alcaraz looked at his absolute best in his second-round match against Alexander Shevchenko. The defending Madrid Open champion hit 19 winners and gave his opponent no chance to get any rhythm in the match. Thiago Seyboth Wild is playing his first full season on the ATP tour and has made a decent start. The Brazillian is coming into this match after two straight-set wins in his previous round matches. He beat Daniil Medvedev last year on clay, but Carlos Alcaraz is a different level altogether. If Alcaraz plays the way he did in his previous match, he will win comfortably.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
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